The summer gives us the consolidation of the Caliphate and the confirmation exasperating Western paralysis (also public)
Past summer, is the emergency. When the sweltering heat will loosen its grip on the desert, in the galaxy of Islamic lands of Africa and the Middle East where the wind blows of the jihad, the weapons will return to speak even more than now, perhaps permanently replacing diplomacy.
The Islamic State
As for the most significant threat in the region, namely the Islamic State, the month of August has seen a significant drop in military operations in both Syria and Iraq and the parallel territorial consolidation in Libya, particularly in Sirte.
The situation in Iraq
As men of the Caliph licking their wounds, however, no one has taken advantage of this time to scratch his forces and break down the certainties of the "conquerors".
Not the Iraqi army, aided by the heat that has failed to advance in Ramadi, lost in May, neither has taken control over the crucial Baiji refinery, that the Iraqi prime minister Haider al-Abadi described at this time as a battle "crucial for the fate of the entire war." And all this despite the international coalition air strikes have focused very precisely on Iraqi territory, where it rained almost twice as many bombs than the Syrian theater (at the end of June, there were 2,833 strikes in Iraq in 1717 and Syria).
Therefore, Iraq's Shiite still bound in a deadly challenge to the Sunni enemy, proved stronger than previously believed and "die-hard" more than was originally estimated. The campaigns for the reconquest of these two areas, Baiji and Ramadi, tell us soon if we must get used to the presence of the Islamic State in the land of Babylon or whether there is hope in the long term because Baghdad returns to still administer the north of the country.
The situation in Syria
is not better in Syria, where the Caliphate has expanded its power, despite losing several senior officers and clashing with more than one enemy at a time (the Syrian rebels fighting against Assad that is against the Islamic State).
The images Palmira and destruction of archaeological sites are just the latest slap in the face to the regime in Damascus and the whole world, but the real scandal are certainly victims of war, which in 2015 reached the frightening number of 250 thousand, without counting the 4 million refugees.
President Bashar Al Assad , through a station close to Hezbollah, said he was at this time "confident of continued support of key allies" that Iran and Russia.
Moscow, in fact, on 18 August arrived in Damascus six aircraft Mig-31 Foxhound, followed by a giant An-124 Condor transport in his belly about 1,000-9M133 Kornet, anti-tank missiles homing third generation, effective prevent suicide attacks of the tank of the Islamic State (who use these means as battering rams to penetrate and break through enemy lines).
But, apart from that, the daily horror of war tells of a Syrian army on the defensive and in retreat continues, that to flush out insurgents and weaken the opposition relies now the tremendous "barrel bombs", ie metal drums filled much of explosives as scrap and scrap metal varies, demonstrating how short supply arms to the regime. And this while the government began to fortify the capital Damascus and Latakia in the northwest, in the fear of not being able to effectively protect even the core of the territory still under its control.
The best in Libya
Libya deserves a separate discussion in this overview, but for the double thread that unites the unfortunate experiences of these three countries: the civil war on the one hand (because basically that's what you speak) and, secondly, the simultaneous total inability of the international community in being able to manage the crisis. If before Libya was broadly divided between Islamists who control the capital Tripoli and the government "legitimate" that controls Tobruk and some inland areas - reflecting the plastically spatial schema that historically separates Tripolitania and Cyrenaica - now is the variable of the inserted here Islamic State, taking advantage of the chaos that sees the triumph once again the Latin motto of divide and rule.
The men of the Caliph Al Baghdadi expand patchy and have made inroads into the city as Derna, Sabratha (Leptis Magna) and Sirte , whose inland basin is of vital importance to the national economy. And that is why the foreign minister recognized Mohammed al-Dayri, from Paris avverito that militiamen ISIS "have not yet taken the oil fields, but we fear that they can be able to control several wells". If the ISIS were to make progress here, too, the situation is even more complicated.
To no avail so far the efforts of General Haftar, true to Tobruk, to overwhelm the enemy forces. The Caliphate remains and grows as a threat, while in Benghazi component jihadi Ansar Al Shariadaily clashes with the army. Islamists in Tripoli and Misrata, loyal only to themselves, are actually skeptical about connecting forces with those of Tobruk to repel the ISIS and no one has yet convinced of the opposite.
The role of the international community
"We need international intervention in Libya" , warned the minister al-Dayri from Paris. Nonetheless, no one talks to send troops there.
Same goes for Syria and Iraq. Perhaps that these countries should be abandoned to their fate?
It seems that there is a force inexpressible that every two or three months leads to inertia as useless peace talks, without that behind there is a real belief and without that there is no confidence in their success.
It seems indeed that the part of the negotiators there is a clear desire not to achieve any useful result and, like Penelope, those agreements that you make during the day, then at night disintegrate immediately. Should be asked to Turkey, just as an example, what is the real goal of its Ministry of Defense and if its war is not directed at the Kurdish PKK rather than the Islamic State.
This force inexpressible, in short, has a vested interest in that Islamic fundamentalism increases and expands. Of course, the arms dealers are doing business without previous few years and hope that everything continues in the same way and will last as long as possible.
But if you do not want to give credence to the story that wants an international conspiracy that fuels knowingly fire of war, is there anyway to record at least the general indifference of the world's chancelleries and, ultimately, also the public.
And it is perhaps here the dark evil of the West, an evil to which nobody knows or wants to find a remedy. Waiting for the next daring venture of the Caliphate black.
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